Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Tredegar?
7%UnlikelyChance of a white Christmas
Christmas Day snow odds for Tredegar, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
What history says
Christmas snow in Tredegar
The calibrated long-range estimate for Tredegar is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
7%
White Christmas
3%
Snow on the Day
4%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Tredegar, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
5of 34
1990s
90
91
92
White Christmas
9394
White Christmas
9596
97
98
99
2000s
White Christmas
0001
02
03
White Christmas
0405
06
07
08
White Christmas
092010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Tredegar
Elevation
321 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Tredegar sits at 321 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Tredegar this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 7% chance of a white Christmas in Tredegar in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Tredegar have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Tredegar is 7%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Tredegar this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Lyneham, the nearest long-running weather station (92 km away), snow has settled in 65% of winters, on about 2.6 days a winter, usually first around 29 January. Snow lies there in December in 30% of years.
- When did Tredegar last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Tredegar in our 1991–2024 records was 2009.