Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Mountain Ash?
Christmas Day snow odds for Mountain Ash, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Mountain Ash
The calibrated long-range estimate for Mountain Ash is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
5%
White Christmas
3%
Snow on the Day
2%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Mountain Ash, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
3of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Mountain Ash this winter?
At Lyneham, the nearest long-running weather station (98 km away), snow has settled in 65% of winters, on about 2.6 days a winter. It usually first settles around 29 January, and lies there in December in 30% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Mountain Ash
Elevation
116 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Mountain Ash sits at 116 m.
Put your town on the Christmas card
Share Mountain Ash’s snow forecast
A little Christmas speculation for the group chat. Save your local forecast card or share the link so friends can check their own town.
Writing about Mountain Ash?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Mountain Ash has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/mountain-ash
HTML with link
<p>Mountain Ash has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/mountain-ash">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Mountain Ash this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Mountain Ash in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Mountain Ash have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Mountain Ash is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Mountain Ash this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Lyneham, the nearest long-running weather station (98 km away), snow has settled in 65% of winters, on about 2.6 days a winter, usually first around 29 January. Snow lies there in December in 30% of years.
- When did Mountain Ash last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Mountain Ash was 2009, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.