Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Ferndale?
Christmas Day snow odds for Ferndale, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
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Christmas snow in Ferndale
The calibrated long-range estimate for Ferndale is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
6%
White Christmas
5%
Snow on the Day
3%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Ferndale, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
4of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
About Ferndale
Elevation
236 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Ferndale sits at 236 m.
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Ferndale has a 6% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 6 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/ferndale
HTML with link
<p>Ferndale has a 6% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/ferndale">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 6 November 2026).</p>
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Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Ferndale this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 6% chance of a white Christmas in Ferndale in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Ferndale have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Ferndale is 6%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Ferndale last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Ferndale was 2009, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.