Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Hamstead Marshall?
4%Very unlikelyChance of a white Christmas
Christmas Day snow odds for Hamstead Marshall, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
What history says
Christmas snow in Hamstead Marshall
The calibrated long-range estimate for Hamstead Marshall is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
4%
White Christmas
2%
Snow on the Day
2%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Hamstead Marshall, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
2of 34
1990s
90
91
White Christmas
9293
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
White Christmas
092010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Hamstead Marshall
Elevation
105 m
Region
South East England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Hamstead Marshall sits at 105 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Hamstead Marshall this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 4% chance of a white Christmas in Hamstead Marshall in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Hamstead Marshall have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Hamstead Marshall is 4%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Hamstead Marshall this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Lyneham, the nearest long-running weather station (43 km away), snow has settled in 65% of winters, on about 2.6 days a winter, usually first around 29 January. Snow lies there in December in 30% of years.
- When did Hamstead Marshall last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Hamstead Marshall in our 1991–2024 records was 2009.