Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Balerno?
Christmas Day snow odds for Balerno, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Balerno
The calibrated long-range estimate for Balerno is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2018.
9%
White Christmas
6%
Snow on the Day
4%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Balerno, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
6of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Balerno this winter?
At Leuchars, the nearest long-running weather station (62 km away), snow has settled in 74% of winters, on about 5.8 days a winter. It usually first settles around 31 December, and lies there in December in 30% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Balerno
Elevation
165 m
Region
Scotland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Balerno sits at 165 m.
Put your town on the Christmas card
Share Balerno’s snow forecast
A little Christmas speculation for the group chat. Save your local forecast card or share the link so friends can check their own town.
Writing about Balerno?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Balerno has a 9% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/balerno
HTML with link
<p>Balerno has a 9% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/balerno">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Balerno this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 9% chance of a white Christmas in Balerno in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Balerno have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Balerno is 9%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Balerno this winter?
- Very likely at some point. At Leuchars, the nearest long-running weather station (62 km away), snow has settled in 74% of winters, on about 5.8 days a winter, usually first around 31 December. Snow lies there in December in 30% of years.
- When did Balerno last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Balerno was 2018, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.