Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Islawr-Dref?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
Wales201 m elevation1 km local model
5%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Islawr-Dref
The calibrated long-range estimate for Islawr-Dref is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
5%
White Christmas
3%
Snow on the Day
3%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Islawr-Dref, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
3of 34
1990s
90
91
92
White Christmas
9394
White Christmas
9596
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
White Christmas
092010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Islawr-Dref
Elevation
201 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Islawr-Dref sits at 201 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Islawr-Dref this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Islawr-Dref in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Islawr-Dref have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Islawr-Dref is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Islawr-Dref last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Islawr-Dref in our 1991–2024 records was 2009.