Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Elphin?
Christmas Day snow odds for Elphin, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Elphin
The calibrated long-range estimate for Elphin is about 2 years in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2019.
15%
White Christmas
12%
Snow on the Day
7%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Elphin, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
10of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Elphin this winter?
At Stornoway, the nearest long-running weather station (82 km away), snow has settled in 61% of winters, on about 3.3 days a winter. It usually first settles around 8 January, and lies there in December in 28% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Elphin
Elevation
138 m
Region
Scotland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Elphin sits at 138 m.
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Share Elphin’s snow forecast
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Writing about Elphin?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Elphin has a 15% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/elphin
HTML with link
<p>Elphin has a 15% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/elphin">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Elphin this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 15% chance of a white Christmas in Elphin in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Elphin have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Elphin is 15%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Elphin this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Stornoway, the nearest long-running weather station (82 km away), snow has settled in 61% of winters, on about 3.3 days a winter, usually first around 8 January. Snow lies there in December in 28% of years.
- When did Elphin last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Elphin was 2019, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.