Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Elphin?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
Scotland138 m elevation1 km local model
15%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Elphin
The calibrated long-range estimate for Elphin is about 2 years in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2019.
15%
White Christmas
12%
Snow on the Day
7%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Elphin, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
10of 34
1990s
90
91
92
White Christmas
9394
White Christmas
95White Christmas
9697
98
99
2000s
White Christmas
00White Christmas
0102
03
White Christmas
0405
White Christmas
0607
08
09
2010s
White Christmas
1011
12
13
White Christmas
1415
16
17
18
White Christmas
192020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Elphin
Elevation
138 m
Region
Scotland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Elphin sits at 138 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Elphin this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 15% chance of a white Christmas in Elphin in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Elphin have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Elphin is 15%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Elphin last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Elphin in our 1991–2024 records was 2019.