Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Ardessie?
10%UnlikelyChance of a white Christmas
Christmas Day snow odds for Ardessie, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
What history says
Christmas snow in Ardessie
The calibrated long-range estimate for Ardessie is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2014.
10%
White Christmas
10%
Snow on the Day
5%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Ardessie, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
6of 34
1990s
90
91
92
93
94
White Christmas
95White Christmas
9697
98
99
2000s
White Christmas
0001
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
White Christmas
092010s
White Christmas
1011
12
13
White Christmas
1415
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Ardessie
Elevation
8 m
Region
Scotland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Ardessie sits at 8 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Ardessie this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 10% chance of a white Christmas in Ardessie in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Ardessie have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Ardessie is 10%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Ardessie this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Stornoway, the nearest long-running weather station (81 km away), snow has settled in 61% of winters, on about 3.3 days a winter, usually first around 8 January. Snow lies there in December in 28% of years.
- When did Ardessie last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Ardessie in our 1991–2024 records was 2014.