Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Welch's Dam?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
East of England0 m elevation1 km local model
5%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Welch's Dam
The calibrated long-range estimate for Welch's Dam is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
5%
White Christmas
2%
Snow on the Day
3%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Welch's Dam, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
3of 34
1990s
90
91
92
White Christmas
93White Christmas
9495
96
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
White Christmas
092010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Welch's Dam
Elevation
0 m
Region
East of England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Welch's Dam sits at 0 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Welch's Dam this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Welch's Dam in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Welch's Dam have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Welch's Dam is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Welch's Dam last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Welch's Dam in our 1991–2024 records was 2009.