Local Christmas forecast · 2026

White Christmas in Garthorpe?

Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.

Yorkshire and the Humber6 m elevation1 km local model
5%Chance of a white Christmas

What history says

Christmas snow in Garthorpe

The calibrated long-range estimate for Garthorpe is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.

5%

White Christmas

3%

Snow on the Day

3%

Snow on the Eve

Christmases in Garthorpe, 1991–2024

Observed history

Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day

3of 34

1990s

91
92
White Christmas
93
White Christmas
94
95
96
97
98
99

2000s

00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
White Christmas
09

2010s

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

2020s

20
21
22
23
24
White ChristmasNo recorded snow

About Garthorpe

Elevation

6 m

Region

Yorkshire and the Humber

Model

1 km, in-house

Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Garthorpe sits at 6 m.

Nearby places

Frequently asked questions

Will it snow in Garthorpe this Christmas?
The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Garthorpe in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
How often does Garthorpe have a white Christmas?
The calibrated long-range estimate for Garthorpe is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
When did Garthorpe last have a white Christmas?
The most recent white Christmas in Garthorpe in our 1991–2024 records was 2009.