Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Castle Vale?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
West Midlands87 m elevation1 km local model
6%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Castle Vale
The calibrated long-range estimate for Castle Vale is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
6%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
4%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Castle Vale, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
4of 34
1990s
90
91
92
White Christmas
93White Christmas
94White Christmas
9596
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
White Christmas
092010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Castle Vale
Elevation
87 m
Region
West Midlands
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Castle Vale sits at 87 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Castle Vale this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 6% chance of a white Christmas in Castle Vale in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Castle Vale have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Castle Vale is 6%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Castle Vale last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Castle Vale in our 1991–2024 records was 2009.