Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Ty-draw?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
Wales60 m elevation1 km local model
1%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Ty-draw
The calibrated long-range estimate for Ty-draw is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods.
1%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Ty-draw, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
0of 34
1990s
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
2010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
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25
26
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29
About Ty-draw
Elevation
60 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Ty-draw sits at 60 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Ty-draw this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 1% chance of a white Christmas in Ty-draw in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Ty-draw have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Ty-draw is 1%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Ty-draw last have a white Christmas?
- Our 1991–2024 records show no white Christmas in Ty-draw. Snow on the day here is rare.