Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in The Common?
Christmas Day snow odds for The Common, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
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Christmas snow in The Common
The calibrated long-range estimate for The Common is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2010.
2%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in The Common, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
1of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
About The Common
Elevation
32 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and The Common sits at 32 m.
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Writing about The Common?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
The Common has a 2% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/the-common
HTML with link
<p>The Common has a 2% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/the-common">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in The Common this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 2% chance of a white Christmas in The Common in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does The Common have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for The Common is 2%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did The Common last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for The Common was 2010, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.