Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Porthgain?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
Wales16 m elevation1 km local model
3%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Porthgain
The calibrated long-range estimate for Porthgain is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2010.
3%
White Christmas
2%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Porthgain, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
1of 34
1990s
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
2010s
White Christmas
1011
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Porthgain
Elevation
16 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Porthgain sits at 16 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Porthgain this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 3% chance of a white Christmas in Porthgain in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Porthgain have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Porthgain is 3%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Porthgain last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Porthgain in our 1991–2024 records was 2010.