Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Groesffordd Marli?
Christmas Day snow odds for Groesffordd Marli, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
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Christmas snow in Groesffordd Marli
The calibrated long-range estimate for Groesffordd Marli is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
5%
White Christmas
5%
Snow on the Day
2%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Groesffordd Marli, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
3of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Groesffordd Marli this winter?
At Shawbury, the nearest long-running weather station (74 km away), snow has settled in 72% of winters, on about 4.6 days a winter. It usually first settles around 18 January, and lies there in December in 28% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Groesffordd Marli
Elevation
107 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Groesffordd Marli sits at 107 m.
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Groesffordd Marli has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/groesffordd-marli
HTML with link
<p>Groesffordd Marli has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/wales/groesffordd-marli">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Groesffordd Marli this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Groesffordd Marli in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Groesffordd Marli have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Groesffordd Marli is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Groesffordd Marli this winter?
- Very likely at some point. At Shawbury, the nearest long-running weather station (74 km away), snow has settled in 72% of winters, on about 4.6 days a winter, usually first around 18 January. Snow lies there in December in 28% of years.
- When did Groesffordd Marli last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Groesffordd Marli was 2009, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.