Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Shaftesbury?
Christmas Day snow odds for Shaftesbury, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Shaftesbury
The calibrated long-range estimate for Shaftesbury is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2004.
5%
White Christmas
3%
Snow on the Day
2%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Shaftesbury, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
3of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Shaftesbury this winter?
At Hurn, the nearest long-running weather station (35 km away), snow has settled in 35% of winters, on about 1 days a winter. It usually first settles around 3 February, and lies there in December in 4% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Shaftesbury
Elevation
207 m
Region
South West England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Shaftesbury sits at 207 m.
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Share Shaftesbury’s snow forecast
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Shaftesbury has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-west/shaftesbury
HTML with link
<p>Shaftesbury has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-west/shaftesbury">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
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Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Shaftesbury this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Shaftesbury in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Shaftesbury have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Shaftesbury is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Shaftesbury this winter?
- Settling snow is unusual here. At Hurn, the nearest long-running weather station (35 km away), snow has settled in 35% of winters, on about 1 days a winter, usually first around 3 February. Snow lies there in December in 4% of years.
- When did Shaftesbury last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Shaftesbury was 2004, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.