Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Longcause?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
South West England35 m elevation1 km local model
1%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Longcause
The calibrated long-range estimate for Longcause is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods.
1%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Longcause, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
0of 34
1990s
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
2010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Longcause
Elevation
35 m
Region
South West England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Longcause sits at 35 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Longcause this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 1% chance of a white Christmas in Longcause in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Longcause have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Longcause is 1%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Longcause last have a white Christmas?
- Our 1991–2024 records show no white Christmas in Longcause. Snow on the day here is rare.