Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Longcause?
Christmas Day snow odds for Longcause, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
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Christmas snow in Longcause
The calibrated long-range estimate for Longcause is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods.
1%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Longcause, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
0of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
About Longcause
Elevation
35 m
Region
South West England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Longcause sits at 35 m.
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Longcause has a 1% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-west/longcause
HTML with link
<p>Longcause has a 1% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-west/longcause">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Longcause this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 1% chance of a white Christmas in Longcause in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Longcause have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Longcause is 1%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Longcause last have a white Christmas?
- Our 1991–2024 reconstruction has no year meeting the Christmas snow threshold for Longcause. That does not prove snow never fell: the model estimates falling snow on 24 or 25 December and ends in 2024.