Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Upton Lea?
Christmas Day snow odds for Upton Lea, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Upton Lea
The calibrated long-range estimate for Upton Lea is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
4%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
4%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Upton Lea, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
2of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Upton Lea this winter?
At Heathrow, the nearest long-running weather station (71 km away), snow has settled in 47% of winters, on about 1.9 days a winter. It usually first settles around 13 January, and lies there in December in 18% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Upton Lea
Elevation
48 m
Region
South East England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Upton Lea sits at 48 m.
Put your town on the Christmas card
Share Upton Lea’s snow forecast
A little Christmas speculation for the group chat. Save your local forecast card or share the link so friends can check their own town.
Writing about Upton Lea?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Upton Lea has a 4% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-east/upton-lea
HTML with link
<p>Upton Lea has a 4% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-east/upton-lea">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Upton Lea this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 4% chance of a white Christmas in Upton Lea in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Upton Lea have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Upton Lea is 4%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Upton Lea this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Heathrow, the nearest long-running weather station (71 km away), snow has settled in 47% of winters, on about 1.9 days a winter, usually first around 13 January. Snow lies there in December in 18% of years.
- When did Upton Lea last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Upton Lea was 2009, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.