Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Tarring Neville?
Christmas Day snow odds for Tarring Neville, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Tarring Neville
The calibrated long-range estimate for Tarring Neville is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods.
1%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Tarring Neville, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
0of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Tarring Neville this winter?
At Heathrow, the nearest long-running weather station (79 km away), snow has settled in 47% of winters, on about 1.9 days a winter. It usually first settles around 13 January, and lies there in December in 18% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Tarring Neville
Elevation
3 m
Region
South East England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Tarring Neville sits at 3 m.
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Tarring Neville has a 1% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-east/tarring-neville
HTML with link
<p>Tarring Neville has a 1% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/south-east/tarring-neville">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
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Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Tarring Neville this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 1% chance of a white Christmas in Tarring Neville in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Tarring Neville have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Tarring Neville is 1%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Tarring Neville this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Heathrow, the nearest long-running weather station (79 km away), snow has settled in 47% of winters, on about 1.9 days a winter, usually first around 13 January. Snow lies there in December in 18% of years.
- When did Tarring Neville last have a white Christmas?
- Our 1991–2024 reconstruction has no year meeting the Christmas snow threshold for Tarring Neville. That does not prove snow never fell: the model estimates falling snow on 24 or 25 December and ends in 2024.