Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Tomnavoulin?
Christmas Day snow odds for Tomnavoulin, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Tomnavoulin
The calibrated long-range estimate for Tomnavoulin is about 2 years in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2023.
20%
White Christmas
16%
Snow on the Day
11%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Tomnavoulin, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
14of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Tomnavoulin this winter?
At Dyce, the nearest long-running weather station (68 km away), snow has settled in 91% of winters, on about 13.9 days a winter. It usually first settles around 3 December, and lies there in December in 64% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Tomnavoulin
Elevation
263 m
Region
Scotland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Tomnavoulin sits at 263 m.
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Tomnavoulin has a 20% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/tomnavoulin
HTML with link
<p>Tomnavoulin has a 20% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/tomnavoulin">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Tomnavoulin this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 20% chance of a white Christmas in Tomnavoulin in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Tomnavoulin have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Tomnavoulin is 20%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Tomnavoulin this winter?
- Very likely at some point. At Dyce, the nearest long-running weather station (68 km away), snow has settled in 91% of winters, on about 13.9 days a winter, usually first around 3 December. Snow lies there in December in 64% of years.
- When did Tomnavoulin last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Tomnavoulin was 2023, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.