Will it snow in Tarland this Christmas?

The current estimate is a 18% chance of a white Christmas in Tarland in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.

How often does Tarland have a white Christmas?

The calibrated long-range estimate for Tarland is 18%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.

When did Tarland last have a white Christmas?

The most recent white Christmas in Tarland in our 1991–2024 records was 2023.

Local Christmas forecast · 2026

White Christmas in Tarland?

Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.

Scotland149 m elevation1 km local model

18%Chance of a white Christmas

What history says

Christmas snow in Tarland

The calibrated long-range estimate for Tarland is about 2 years in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2023.

18%

White Christmas

Snow on the Day

14%

Snow on the Eve

Christmases in Tarland, 1991–2024

Observed history

Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day

13of 34

1990s

2000s

2010s

2020s

White ChristmasNo recorded snow

About Tarland

Elevation

149 m

Region

Scotland

Model

1 km, in-house

Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Tarland sits at 149 m.

Nearby places

Banchory

24 km away

16%

Inverurie

34 km away

13%

Westhill

35 km away

13%

Dyce

42 km away

13%

Stonehaven

43 km away

11%

Portlethen

44 km away

13%

Frequently asked questions

Will it snow in Tarland this Christmas?: The current estimate is a 18% chance of a white Christmas in Tarland in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
How often does Tarland have a white Christmas?: The calibrated long-range estimate for Tarland is 18%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
When did Tarland last have a white Christmas?: The most recent white Christmas in Tarland in our 1991–2024 records was 2023.