Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in St Aethans?
Christmas Day snow odds for St Aethans, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in St Aethans
The calibrated long-range estimate for St Aethans is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2019.
11%
White Christmas
8%
Snow on the Day
6%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in St Aethans, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
7of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in St Aethans this winter?
At Dyce, the nearest long-running weather station (95 km away), snow has settled in 91% of winters, on about 13.9 days a winter. It usually first settles around 3 December, and lies there in December in 64% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About St Aethans
Elevation
33 m
Region
Scotland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and St Aethans sits at 33 m.
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
St Aethans has an 11% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/st-aethans
HTML with link
<p>St Aethans has an 11% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/scotland/st-aethans">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
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Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in St Aethans this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 11% chance of a white Christmas in St Aethans in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does St Aethans have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for St Aethans is 11%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in St Aethans this winter?
- Very likely at some point. At Dyce, the nearest long-running weather station (95 km away), snow has settled in 91% of winters, on about 13.9 days a winter, usually first around 3 December. Snow lies there in December in 64% of years.
- When did St Aethans last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for St Aethans was 2019, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.