Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in The Rock?
Christmas Day snow odds for The Rock, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in The Rock
The calibrated long-range estimate for The Rock is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
7%
White Christmas
5%
Snow on the Day
2%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in The Rock, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
4of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in The Rock this winter?
At Aldergrove, the nearest long-running weather station (40 km away), snow has settled in 63% of winters, on about 3.4 days a winter. It usually first settles around 23 December, and lies there in December in 26% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About The Rock
Elevation
85 m
Region
Northern Ireland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and The Rock sits at 85 m.
Put your town on the Christmas card
Share The Rock’s snow forecast
A little Christmas speculation for the group chat. Save your local forecast card or share the link so friends can check their own town.
Writing about The Rock?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
The Rock has a 7% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/northern-ireland/the-rock-2
HTML with link
<p>The Rock has a 7% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/northern-ireland/the-rock-2">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in The Rock this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 7% chance of a white Christmas in The Rock in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does The Rock have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for The Rock is 7%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in The Rock this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Aldergrove, the nearest long-running weather station (40 km away), snow has settled in 63% of winters, on about 3.4 days a winter, usually first around 23 December. Snow lies there in December in 26% of years.
- When did The Rock last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for The Rock was 2009, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.