Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Greencastle?
Christmas Day snow odds for Greencastle, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Greencastle
The calibrated long-range estimate for Greencastle is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods.
1%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Greencastle, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
0of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Greencastle this winter?
At Aldergrove, the nearest long-running weather station (69 km away), snow has settled in 63% of winters, on about 3.4 days a winter. It usually first settles around 23 December, and lies there in December in 26% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Greencastle
Elevation
4 m
Region
Northern Ireland
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Greencastle sits at 4 m.
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Share Greencastle’s snow forecast
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Writing about Greencastle?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Greencastle has a 1% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/northern-ireland/greencastle-3
HTML with link
<p>Greencastle has a 1% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/northern-ireland/greencastle-3">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Greencastle this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 1% chance of a white Christmas in Greencastle in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Greencastle have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Greencastle is 1%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Greencastle this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Aldergrove, the nearest long-running weather station (69 km away), snow has settled in 63% of winters, on about 3.4 days a winter, usually first around 23 December. Snow lies there in December in 26% of years.
- When did Greencastle last have a white Christmas?
- Our 1991–2024 reconstruction has no year meeting the Christmas snow threshold for Greencastle. That does not prove snow never fell: the model estimates falling snow on 24 or 25 December and ends in 2024.