Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Padgate?
Christmas Day snow odds for Padgate, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Padgate
The calibrated long-range estimate for Padgate is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2010.
5%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
3%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Padgate, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
3of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Padgate this winter?
At Shawbury, the nearest long-running weather station (68 km away), snow has settled in 72% of winters, on about 4.6 days a winter. It usually first settles around 18 January, and lies there in December in 28% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Padgate
Elevation
13 m
Region
North West England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Padgate sits at 13 m.
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Share Padgate’s snow forecast
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Writing about Padgate?
Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Padgate has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/north-west/padgate
HTML with link
<p>Padgate has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/north-west/padgate">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Padgate this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Padgate in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Padgate have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Padgate is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Padgate this winter?
- Very likely at some point. At Shawbury, the nearest long-running weather station (68 km away), snow has settled in 72% of winters, on about 4.6 days a winter, usually first around 18 January. Snow lies there in December in 28% of years.
- When did Padgate last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Padgate was 2010, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.