Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Ince-in-Makerfield?
Christmas Day snow odds for Ince-in-Makerfield, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
Share your town’s forecast card →What history says
Christmas snow in Ince-in-Makerfield
The calibrated long-range estimate for Ince-in-Makerfield is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
5%
White Christmas
3%
Snow on the Day
3%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Ince-in-Makerfield, 1991–2024
Modelled history
Estimated falling snow on Christmas Eve or Day
3of 34
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Beyond Christmas Day
Will it snow in Ince-in-Makerfield this winter?
At Shawbury, the nearest long-running weather station (82 km away), snow has settled in 72% of winters, on about 4.6 days a winter. It usually first settles around 18 January, and lies there in December in 28% of years.
Will it snow in the UK this winter? When and where snow usually arrives →About Ince-in-Makerfield
Elevation
41 m
Region
North West England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Ince-in-Makerfield sits at 41 m.
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Cite this forecast
You are welcome to quote these odds. Please credit White Christmas UK with a link to this page. Figures update as the forecast comes into range, so the date matters.
Text
Ince-in-Makerfield has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to White Christmas UK (as of 5 November 2026). https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/north-west/ince-in-makerfield
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<p>Ince-in-Makerfield has a 5% chance of a white Christmas in 2026, according to <a href="https://whitechristmas.uk/uk/north-west/ince-in-makerfield">White Christmas UK</a> (as of 5 November 2026).</p>
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Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Ince-in-Makerfield this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Ince-in-Makerfield in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Ince-in-Makerfield have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Ince-in-Makerfield is 5%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Ince-in-Makerfield this winter?
- Very likely at some point. At Shawbury, the nearest long-running weather station (82 km away), snow has settled in 72% of winters, on about 4.6 days a winter, usually first around 18 January. Snow lies there in December in 28% of years.
- When did Ince-in-Makerfield last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent modelled Christmas snow signal for Ince-in-Makerfield was 2009, in our 1991–2024 reconstruction. This covers falling snow on 24 or 25 December; it is not a verified observation of snowfall on Christmas Day.