Christmas 2026 snow forecast
Will it snow in Cardiff?
1%Very unlikelyChance of a white Christmas
Christmas Day snow odds for Cardiff, from 34 winters of observations and our 1 km forecast model.
What history says
Christmas snow in Cardiff
The calibrated long-range estimate for Cardiff is fewer than 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods.
1%
White Christmas
1%
Snow on the Day
1%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Cardiff, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
0of 34
1990s
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
2010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Cardiff
Elevation
17 m
Region
Wales
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Cardiff sits at 17 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Cardiff this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 1% chance of a white Christmas in Cardiff in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Cardiff have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Cardiff is 1%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- Will it snow in Cardiff this winter?
- Quite possibly, though not every winter. At Lyneham, the nearest long-running weather station (82 km away), snow has settled in 65% of winters, on about 2.6 days a winter, usually first around 29 January. Snow lies there in December in 30% of years.
- When did Cardiff last have a white Christmas?
- Our 1991–2024 records show no white Christmas in Cardiff. Snow on the day here is rare.