Local Christmas forecast · 2026
White Christmas in Hardraw?
Your local snow odds for Christmas Day, built from 34 winters of observations and our latest forecast model.
North West England240 m elevation1 km local model
10%Chance of a white Christmas
What history says
Christmas snow in Hardraw
The calibrated long-range estimate for Hardraw is about 1 year in 10. It combines the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid reconstruction with calibration across rolling historical test periods. The most recent modelled white Christmas in the underlying record was 2009.
10%
White Christmas
6%
Snow on the Day
7%
Snow on the Eve
Christmases in Hardraw, 1991–2024
Observed history
Snow fell on Christmas Eve or Day
7of 34
1990s
90
91
White Christmas
92White Christmas
9394
White Christmas
95White Christmas
9697
98
99
2000s
00
01
02
03
White Christmas
0405
White Christmas
0607
08
White Christmas
092010s
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2020s
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
About Hardraw
Elevation
240 m
Region
North West England
Model
1 km, in-house
Higher and more northerly places tend to score better, and Hardraw sits at 240 m.
Nearby places
Frequently asked questions
- Will it snow in Hardraw this Christmas?
- The current estimate is a 10% chance of a white Christmas in Hardraw in 2026. This far out the number comes from our climate model; it sharpens on its own as the live forecast comes into range, within about a month of Christmas.
- How often does Hardraw have a white Christmas?
- The calibrated long-range estimate for Hardraw is 10%, based on the 1991–2024 HadUK-Grid record and rolling historical validation.
- When did Hardraw last have a white Christmas?
- The most recent white Christmas in Hardraw in our 1991–2024 records was 2009.